Statistic made Basketball betting predictions

Basketball is one of the sports with the most accessible statistical information for team presentation in every match. This allows the development of many different strategies to produce statistically proved betting predictions. In the following lines, we will present one of these, which focuses mainly on the statistics of successful shots and the total number of shots directed against the opponent’s basket.

The strategy is very simple, but requires certain computer skills to access statistical data and process it.

Above all, however, a few words about the statistical methods for making betting predictions. Usually, people make their predictions based on their perception of the performance of the teams. In such cases, statistics remain in the background, simply used for a glance at the current table and the results of the teams in the last few meetings. An example for betting predictions of this type (though for football) can be found at dormir-en-suisse.com. In statistical betting tips, the perception stays in the background as something subjective, and whether a bet is worth it or not, is only the matter of numbers. Such is our strategy.

We collect the data about the total number and the successful shots for one, two and three points for a team in the last few games. We also collect the allowed ones. We do this for both teams, for each we only take the results from matches played at home or away, depending on what role the team will be in the upcoming match.

When we have this data, it is relatively easy, through Poisson’s distribution, to predict how many shots and the total number of points a team will make in the match. Having this, it is now a matter of comparing the probabilities and the odds, offered by the bookmaker to decide whether a particular bet is worth to be made or not.

Of course, implementation of this strategy and more precisely, the process of data collecting and its analysis is something that would be very difficult without having a special computer program for betting analysis. If you are not able to use one, you can always contact us for help via the contact form of the site.

Basketball predictions and Poisson distribution

If you like to bet on sports matches and look for matches with a lot of statistical information, surely you would like basketball as a sport a lot. For almost every basketball match we can find tons of statistics that can be used for our betting projects. Another benefit is that there are so many matches that they allow speedy testing of different betting strategies.

Basketball has one more advantage, which is unlike football, the chance does not play much of a role. For example, in a soccer match, a random ricochet may be fatal for one of the teams, but in basketball with nearly 100 points scored, the chance is not that influential. This fact also makes the various strategies for football statistical betting predictions (you can find such on sites like 24-bet.com) less successful than those for basketball.

One of the most fashionable ways for making statistical betting predictions for basketball matches is by using the so-called Poisson distribution. More about this statistical method can be found in Wikipedia at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution. Briefly explained through this mathematical method, when we have the average success rate statistics for a given metric, we can easily get a real chance for a result to happen.

How can we do that for basketball? There are many variants, but here is one.

We take the last 10 matches between two basketball teams that are going to play together, just picking up the matches played in the home team’s room. From these we collect the average number of points scored by both teams in these meetings. We take out the best and the lowest score for each of the teams, so we do not have any peak distortions, and from the other 8 scores we take the average number of points scored and allowed.

When we have this data, we use the Poisson distribution formula to check that each team can score all possible points. For example – less than 60, exactly 61, exactly 62, exactly 63 and so on until we reach the upper limit. Then we sum the probability percentages for all potentially possible outcomes and we can get a final estimate of what chances each team has to win the match and what are the chances to score more or less points than the bookmakers offer for Under Over for that match.