Basketball is one of the sports with the most accessible statistical information for team presentation in every match. This allows the development of many different strategies to produce statistically proved betting predictions. In the following lines, we will present one of these, which focuses mainly on the statistics of successful shots and the total number of shots directed against the opponent’s basket.
The strategy is very simple, but requires certain computer skills to access statistical data and process it.
Above all, however, a few words about the statistical methods for making betting predictions. Usually, people make their predictions based on their perception of the performance of the teams. In such cases, statistics remain in the background, simply used for a glance at the current table and the results of the teams in the last few meetings. An example for betting predictions of this type (though for football) can be found at dormir-en-suisse.com. In statistical betting tips, the perception stays in the background as something subjective, and whether a bet is worth it or not, is only the matter of numbers. Such is our strategy.
We collect the data about the total number and the successful shots for one, two and three points for a team in the last few games. We also collect the allowed ones. We do this for both teams, for each we only take the results from matches played at home or away, depending on what role the team will be in the upcoming match.
When we have this data, it is relatively easy, through Poisson’s distribution, to predict how many shots and the total number of points a team will make in the match. Having this, it is now a matter of comparing the probabilities and the odds, offered by the bookmaker to decide whether a particular bet is worth to be made or not.
Of course, implementation of this strategy and more precisely, the process of data collecting and its analysis is something that would be very difficult without having a special computer program for betting analysis. If you are not able to use one, you can always contact us for help via the contact form of the site.